| Did you ever wonder why Runs Squared
effectively estimates a team's record - and future performance? |
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| Mathematically,
the Runs2 logic
is quite consistent with a binomial distribution. |
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| Something
to think about: About ½ the runs in baseball are a
function of the game itself (rules, conditions, etc.). |
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| Runs2 amplifies runs in a way that very closely matches adjusted runs*, and it's easier
to use. |
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| Here
are both systems for 2008 and 2007- as well as the two most
"extreme" seasons of the twentieth century, 1930 and 1968. |
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| Using
Adjusted Runs* vs Runs Squared to estimate
wins. |
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| *Adjusted runs = Actual Runs minus ½ the
average RPG per team per game in any given season. |
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| FINAL |
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|
Copyright ©
2008, Dwight R. Gill |
|
| 2008 American League Standings |
|
|
Actual |
Adjusted |
|
|
|
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| EAST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
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| Tampa
Bay |
97 |
65 |
.599 |
774 |
671 |
.571 |
92 |
4.78 |
4.14 |
2.45 |
1.82 |
.575 |
93 |
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| Boston |
94 |
67 |
.584 |
841 |
691 |
.597 |
96 |
5.22 |
4.29 |
2.90 |
1.97 |
.596 |
96 |
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| NY Yankees |
89 |
72 |
.553 |
786 |
723 |
.542 |
87 |
4.88 |
4.49 |
2.56 |
2.16 |
.541 |
87 |
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| Toronto |
86 |
76 |
.531 |
714 |
610 |
.578 |
94 |
4.41 |
3.77 |
2.08 |
1.44 |
.591 |
96 |
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| Baltimore |
68 |
93 |
.422 |
782 |
869 |
.447 |
72 |
4.86 |
5.40 |
2.53 |
3.07 |
.452 |
73 |
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| CENTRAL |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
|
|
| Chicago White Sox |
89 |
74 |
.546 |
812 |
729 |
.554 |
90 |
4.98 |
4.47 |
2.66 |
2.15 |
.553 |
90 |
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| Minnesota |
88 |
75 |
.540 |
829 |
746 |
.553 |
90 |
5.09 |
4.58 |
2.76 |
2.25 |
.551 |
90 |
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| Cleveland |
81 |
81 |
.500 |
805 |
761 |
.528 |
86 |
4.97 |
4.70 |
2.64 |
2.37 |
.527 |
85 |
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| Kansas City |
75 |
87 |
.463 |
691 |
781 |
.439 |
71 |
4.27 |
4.82 |
1.94 |
2.49 |
.437 |
71 |
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| Detroit |
74 |
88 |
.457 |
821 |
857 |
.479 |
78 |
5.07 |
5.29 |
2.74 |
2.96 |
.481 |
78 |
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| WEST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
|
|
| LA Angels |
100 |
62 |
.617 |
765 |
697 |
.546 |
89 |
4.72 |
4.30 |
2.40 |
1.98 |
.548 |
89 |
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| Texas |
79 |
83 |
.488 |
901 |
967 |
.465 |
75 |
5.56 |
5.97 |
3.24 |
3.64 |
.470 |
76 |
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| Oakland |
75 |
86 |
.466 |
646 |
690 |
.467 |
75 |
4.01 |
4.29 |
1.69 |
1.96 |
.463 |
74 |
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| Seattle |
61 |
101 |
.377 |
671 |
811 |
.406 |
66 |
4.14 |
5.01 |
1.82 |
2.68 |
.404 |
65 |
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|
| 2008
National League Standings |
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| EAST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
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| Philadelphia |
92 |
70 |
.568 |
799 |
680 |
.580 |
94 |
4.93 |
4.20 |
2.61 |
1.87 |
.582 |
94 |
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| NY Mets |
88 |
73 |
.547 |
797 |
715 |
.554 |
89 |
4.95 |
4.44 |
2.62 |
2.11 |
.554 |
89 |
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| Florida |
84 |
76 |
.525 |
770 |
765 |
.503 |
81 |
4.81 |
4.78 |
2.49 |
2.45 |
.503 |
81 |
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| Atlanta |
72 |
90 |
.444 |
753 |
778 |
.484 |
78 |
4.65 |
4.80 |
2.32 |
2.48 |
.484 |
78 |
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| Washington |
59 |
102 |
.366 |
641 |
825 |
.376 |
61 |
3.98 |
5.12 |
1.65 |
2.80 |
.372 |
60 |
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| CENTRAL |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
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|
| Chicago Cubs |
97 |
64 |
.602 |
855 |
671 |
.619 |
100 |
5.31 |
4.17 |
2.98 |
1.84 |
.618 |
100 |
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| Milwaukee |
90 |
72 |
.556 |
750 |
689 |
.542 |
88 |
4.63 |
4.25 |
2.30 |
1.93 |
.545 |
88 |
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| Houston |
86 |
75 |
.534 |
712 |
743 |
.479 |
77 |
4.42 |
4.61 |
2.10 |
2.29 |
.478 |
77 |
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| St. Louis |
86 |
76 |
.531 |
779 |
725 |
.536 |
87 |
4.81 |
4.48 |
2.48 |
2.15 |
.536 |
87 |
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| Cincinnati |
74 |
88 |
.457 |
704 |
800 |
.436 |
71 |
4.35 |
4.94 |
2.02 |
2.61 |
.436 |
71 |
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| Pittsburgh |
67 |
95 |
.414 |
735 |
884 |
.409 |
66 |
4.54 |
5.46 |
2.21 |
3.13 |
.414 |
67 |
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| WEST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
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|
| LA Dodgers |
84 |
78 |
.519 |
700 |
648 |
.539 |
87 |
4.32 |
4.00 |
1.99 |
1.67 |
.544 |
88 |
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| Arizona |
82 |
80 |
.506 |
720 |
706 |
.510 |
83 |
4.44 |
4.36 |
2.12 |
2.03 |
.510 |
83 |
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| Colorado |
74 |
88 |
.457 |
747 |
822 |
.452 |
73 |
4.61 |
5.07 |
2.28 |
2.75 |
.454 |
74 |
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| San Francisco |
72 |
90 |
.444 |
640 |
759 |
.416 |
67 |
3.95 |
4.69 |
1.62 |
2.36 |
.408 |
66 |
|
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| San Diego |
63 |
99 |
.389 |
637 |
764 |
.410 |
66 |
3.93 |
4.72 |
1.61 |
2.39 |
.402 |
65 |
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2426 |
2426 |
|
22577 |
22577 |
|
2429 |
4.65 |
4.65 |
2.33 |
2.33 |
|
2431 |
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9.31 |
RPG |
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4.65 |
RPT/G |
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2.33 |
adjustment for today's
conditions and rules. |
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(subtract this from RPG
and ORPG, then calculate conventional %) |
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| Final
2007 standings. |
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| 2007 American League Standings |
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|
Actual |
Adjusted |
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| EAST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
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| Boston |
96 |
66 |
.593 |
867 |
657 |
.635 |
103 |
5.35 |
4.06 |
2.95 |
1.66 |
.641 |
104 |
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| NY Yankees |
94 |
68 |
.580 |
968 |
777 |
.608 |
99 |
5.98 |
4.80 |
3.58 |
2.40 |
.599 |
97 |
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| Toronto |
83 |
79 |
.512 |
753 |
699 |
.537 |
87 |
4.65 |
4.31 |
2.25 |
1.92 |
.540 |
87 |
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| Baltimore |
69 |
93 |
.426 |
756 |
868 |
.431 |
70 |
4.67 |
5.36 |
2.27 |
2.96 |
.434 |
70 |
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| Tampa Bay |
66 |
96 |
.407 |
782 |
944 |
.407 |
66 |
4.83 |
5.83 |
2.43 |
3.43 |
.415 |
67 |
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| CENTRAL |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
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| Cleveland |
96 |
66 |
.593 |
811 |
704 |
.570 |
92 |
5.01 |
4.35 |
2.61 |
1.95 |
.573 |
93 |
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| Detroit |
88 |
74 |
.543 |
887 |
797 |
.553 |
90 |
5.48 |
4.92 |
3.08 |
2.52 |
.550 |
89 |
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| Minnesota |
79 |
83 |
.488 |
718 |
725 |
.495 |
80 |
4.43 |
4.48 |
2.03 |
2.08 |
.495 |
80 |
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|
| Chicago White Sox |
72 |
90 |
.444 |
693 |
839 |
.406 |
66 |
4.28 |
5.18 |
1.88 |
2.78 |
.403 |
65 |
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| Kansas City |
69 |
93 |
.426 |
706 |
778 |
.452 |
73 |
4.36 |
4.80 |
1.96 |
2.40 |
.449 |
73 |
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| WEST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
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| LA Angels |
94 |
68 |
.580 |
822 |
731 |
.558 |
90 |
5.07 |
4.51 |
2.68 |
2.11 |
.559 |
90 |
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| Seattle |
88 |
74 |
.543 |
794 |
813 |
.488 |
79 |
4.90 |
5.02 |
2.50 |
2.62 |
.489 |
79 |
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| Oakland |
76 |
86 |
.469 |
741 |
758 |
.489 |
79 |
4.57 |
4.68 |
2.18 |
2.28 |
.488 |
79 |
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| Texas |
75 |
87 |
.463 |
816 |
844 |
.483 |
78 |
5.04 |
5.21 |
2.64 |
2.81 |
.484 |
78 |
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| 2007
National League Standings |
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| EAST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
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| Philadelphia |
89 |
73 |
.549 |
892 |
821 |
.541 |
88 |
5.51 |
5.07 |
3.11 |
2.67 |
.538 |
87 |
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| NY Mets |
88 |
74 |
.543 |
804 |
750 |
.535 |
87 |
4.96 |
4.63 |
2.56 |
2.23 |
.535 |
87 |
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| Atlanta |
84 |
78 |
.519 |
810 |
733 |
.550 |
89 |
5.00 |
4.52 |
2.60 |
2.13 |
.550 |
89 |
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| Washington |
73 |
89 |
.451 |
673 |
783 |
.425 |
69 |
4.15 |
4.83 |
1.76 |
2.43 |
.419 |
68 |
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| Florida |
71 |
91 |
.438 |
790 |
891 |
.440 |
71 |
4.88 |
5.50 |
2.48 |
3.10 |
.444 |
72 |
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| CENTRAL |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Chicago Cubs |
85 |
77 |
.525 |
752 |
690 |
.543 |
88 |
4.64 |
4.26 |
2.24 |
1.86 |
.547 |
89 |
|
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|
|
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|
|
| Milwaukee |
83 |
79 |
.512 |
801 |
776 |
.516 |
84 |
4.94 |
4.79 |
2.55 |
2.39 |
.516 |
84 |
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| St. Louis |
78 |
84 |
.481 |
725 |
829 |
.433 |
70 |
4.48 |
5.12 |
2.08 |
2.72 |
.433 |
70 |
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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| Houston |
73 |
89 |
.451 |
723 |
813 |
.442 |
72 |
4.46 |
5.02 |
2.06 |
2.62 |
.441 |
71 |
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|
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|
|
|
| Cincinnati |
72 |
90 |
.444 |
783 |
853 |
.457 |
74 |
4.83 |
5.27 |
2.43 |
2.87 |
.459 |
74 |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pittsburgh |
68 |
94 |
.420 |
724 |
846 |
.423 |
68 |
4.47 |
5.22 |
2.07 |
2.82 |
.423 |
69 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| WEST |
W |
L |
PCT |
RS |
RA |
R2% |
R2
Wins |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Arizona |
90 |
72 |
.556 |
712 |
732 |
.486 |
79 |
4.40 |
4.52 |
2.00 |
2.12 |
.485 |
79 |
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| Colorado |
90 |
73 |
.552 |
860 |
758 |
.563 |
92 |
5.28 |
4.65 |
2.88 |
2.25 |
.561 |
91 |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| San Diego |
89 |
74 |
.546 |
741 |
666 |
.553 |
90 |
4.55 |
4.09 |
2.15 |
1.69 |
.560 |
91 |
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| LA Dodgers |
82 |
80 |
.506 |
735 |
727 |
.505 |
82 |
4.54 |
4.49 |
2.14 |
2.09 |
.506 |
82 |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| San Francisco |
71 |
91 |
.438 |
683 |
720 |
.474 |
77 |
4.22 |
4.44 |
1.82 |
2.05 |
.470 |
76 |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
2431 |
2431 |
|
23322 |
23322 |
|
2432 |
4.80 |
4.80 |
2.40 |
2.40 |
|
2430 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.59 |
RPG |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.80 |
RPT/G |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.40 |
adjustment for 2007
conditions and rules. |
|
|
|
(subtract this from RPG
and ORPG, then calculate conventional %) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1930
STANDINGS |
|
4.81 ERA |
|
|
|
|
|
Actual |
Adjusted |
|
| TEAM |
W |
L |
Pct. |
R |
OR |
R2% |
R2W |
RPG |
ORPG |
RPG |
ORPG |
% |
W |
|
| A's |
102 |
52 |
.662 |
951 |
751 |
.616 |
95 |
6.18 |
4.88 |
3.40 |
2.10 |
.618 |
95 |
|
| Senators |
94 |
60 |
.610 |
891 |
688 |
.626 |
96 |
5.79 |
4.47 |
3.01 |
1.69 |
.640 |
99 |
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