Did you ever wonder why Runs Squared effectively estimates a team's record - and future performance?
Mathematically, the Runs2 logic is quite consistent with a binomial distribution.
Something to think about: About ½ the runs in baseball are a function of the game itself (rules, conditions, etc.).  
Runs2 amplifies runs in a way that very closely matches adjusted runs*, and it's easier to use.
Here are both systems for 2010, 2009, 2008, and 2007- as well as the two most "extreme" seasons of the twentieth century, 1930 and 1968.
Using Adjusted Runs* vs Runs Squared to estimate wins.          
   *Adjusted runs = Actual Runs minus ½ the average RPG per team per game in any given season.    
Games through  Friday, September 03, 2010
2010 American League Standings  Actual Adjusted
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
NY Yankees 85 50 .630 733 548 .641 87 5.43 4.06 3.10 1.73 .642 87
Tampa Bay  83 51 .619 663 518 .621 83 4.95 3.87 2.62 1.54 .630 84
Boston 76 58 .567 675 608 .552 74 5.04 4.54 2.71 2.21 .551 74
Toronto 69 65 .515 623 592 .525 70 4.65 4.42 2.32 2.09 .526 71
Baltimore 49 86 .363 498 687 .344 47 3.69 5.09 1.36 2.76 .330 45
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Minnesota 78 57 .578 648 545 .586 79 4.80 4.04 2.47 1.71 .591 80
Chicago White Sox 73 60 .549 636 559 .564 75 4.78 4.20 2.46 1.88 .567 75
Detroit 67 68 .496 612 622 .492 66 4.53 4.61 2.21 2.28 .492 66
Kansas City 56 78 .418 550 711 .374 50 4.10 5.31 1.78 2.98 .374 50
Cleveland 54 81 .400 541 655 .406 55 4.01 4.85 1.68 2.53 .400 54
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Texas 75 59 .560 649 563 .571 76 4.84 4.20 2.52 1.87 .573 77
Oakland 66 68 .493 542 518 .523 70 4.04 3.87 1.72 1.54 .527 71
LA Angels 65 70 .481 584 618 .472 64 4.33 4.58 2.00 2.25 .470 64
Seattle 53 82 .393 435 575 .364 49 3.22 4.26 0.90 1.93 .317 43
2010 National League Standings
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Atlanta 78 57 .578 640 515 .607 82 4.74 3.81 2.41 1.49 .619 84
Philadelphia 77 58 .570 623 545 .566 76 4.61 4.04 2.29 1.71 .572 77
Florida 68 65 .511 610 579 .526 70 4.59 4.35 2.26 2.03 .527 70
NY Mets  66 69 .489 539 538 .501 68 3.99 3.99 1.67 1.66 .501 68
Washington 57 78 .422 555 636 .432 58 4.11 4.71 1.78 2.38 .428 58
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Cincinnati 78 56 .582 671 575 .577 77 5.01 4.29 2.68 1.96 .577 77
St. Louis 70 62 .530 598 511 .578 76 4.53 3.87 2.20 1.54 .588 78
Milwaukee 62 72 .463 629 711 .439 59 4.69 5.31 2.37 2.98 .443 59
Houston 62 72 .463 503 604 .410 55 3.75 4.51 1.43 2.18 .396 53
Chicago Cubs 58 77 .430 589 673 .434 59 4.36 4.99 2.04 2.66 .434 59
Pittsburgh 45 89 .336 468 728 .292 39 3.49 5.43 1.17 3.11 .273 37
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
San Diego 76 57 .571 579 471 .602 80 4.35 3.54 2.03 1.21 .625 83
San Francisco 74 61 .548 595 528 .559 76 4.41 3.91 2.08 1.58 .568 77
Colorado 70 64 .522 625 587 .531 71 4.66 4.38 2.34 2.05 .532 71
LA Dodgers 69 66 .511 583 577 .505 68 4.32 4.27 1.99 1.95 .506 68
Arizona 56 79 .415 622 721 .427 58 4.61 5.34 2.28 3.01 .431 58
2015 2015 17818 17818 2017 4.42 4.42 2.09 2.09 2018
8.84 RPG
4.42 RPT/G
2.21 adjustment for today's conditions and rules.
(subtract this from RPG and ORPG, then calculate conventional %)
Final 2009 standings.
2009 American League Standings  Actual Adjusted
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
NY Yankees 103 59 .636 915 753 .596 97 5.65 4.65 3.32 2.32 .589 95
Boston 95 67 .586 872 736 .584 95 5.38 4.54 3.06 2.22 .580 94
Tampa Bay  84 78 .519 803 754 .531 86 4.96 4.65 2.63 2.33 .531 86
Toronto 75 87 .463 798 771 .517 84 4.93 4.76 2.60 2.43 .517 84
Baltimore 64 98 .395 741 876 .417 68 4.57 5.41 2.25 3.08 .422 68
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Minnesota 87 76 .534 817 765 .533 87 5.01 4.69 2.69 2.37 .532 87
Detroit 86 77 .528 743 745 .499 81 4.56 4.57 2.23 2.24 .499 81
Chicago White Sox 79 83 .488 724 732 .495 80 4.47 4.52 2.14 2.19 .494 80
Cleveland 65 97 .401 773 865 .444 72 4.77 5.34 2.45 3.01 .448 73
Kansas City 65 97 .401 686 842 .399 65 4.23 5.20 1.91 2.87 .399 65
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
LA Angels 97 65 .599 883 761 .574 93 5.45 4.70 3.12 2.37 .569 92
Texas 87 75 .537 784 740 .529 86 4.84 4.57 2.51 2.24 .529 86
Seattle 85 77 .525 640 692 .461 75 3.95 4.27 1.62 1.95 .455 74
Oakland 75 87 .463 759 761 .499 81 4.69 4.70 2.36 2.37 .499 81
2009 National League Standings
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Philadelphia 93 69 .574 820 709 .572 93 5.06 4.38 2.74 2.05 .572 93
Florida 87 75 .537 772 766 .504 82 4.77 4.73 2.44 2.40 .504 82
Atlanta 86 76 .531 735 641 .568 92 4.54 3.96 2.21 1.63 .576 93
NY Mets  70 92 .432 671 757 .440 71 4.14 4.67 1.82 2.35 .436 71
Washington 59 103 .364 710 874 .398 64 4.38 5.40 2.06 3.07 .401 65
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
St. Louis 91 71 .562 730 640 .565 92 4.51 3.95 2.18 1.62 .573 93
Chicago Cubs 83 78 .516 707 672 .525 85 4.39 4.17 2.06 1.85 .528 85
Milwaukee 80 82 .494 785 818 .479 78 4.85 5.05 2.52 2.72 .481 78
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 673 723 .464 75 4.15 4.46 1.83 2.14 .461 75
Houston 74 88 .457 643 770 .411 67 3.97 4.75 1.64 2.43 .404 65
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 636 768 .407 65 3.95 4.77 1.62 2.44 .399 64
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
LA Dodgers 95 67 .586 780 611 .620 100 4.81 3.77 2.49 1.45 .633 102
Colorado 92 70 .568 804 715 .558 90 4.96 4.41 2.64 2.09 .558 90
San Francisco 88 74 .543 657 611 .536 87 4.06 3.77 1.73 1.45 .545 88
San Diego 75 87 .463 638 769 .408 66 3.94 4.75 1.61 2.42 .400 65
Arizona 70 92 .432 720 782 .459 74 4.44 4.83 2.12 2.50 .459 74
2430 2430 22419 22419 2431 4.61 4.61 2.29 2.29 2429
9.23 RPG
4.61 RPT/G
2.31 adjustment for today's conditions and rules.
(subtract this from RPG and ORPG, then calculate conventional %)
Final 2008 standings.
2008 American League Standings  Actual Adjusted
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Tampa Bay  97 65 .599 774 671 .571 92 4.78 4.14 2.45 1.82 .575 93
Boston 94 67 .584 841 691 .597 96 5.22 4.29 2.90 1.97 .596 96
NY Yankees 89 72 .553 786 723 .542 87 4.88 4.49 2.56 2.16 .541 87
Toronto 86 76 .531 714 610 .578 94 4.41 3.77 2.08 1.44 .591 96
Baltimore 68 93 .422 782 869 .447 72 4.86 5.40 2.53 3.07 .452 73
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Chicago White Sox 89 74 .546 812 729 .554 90 4.98 4.47 2.66 2.15 .553 90
Minnesota 88 75 .540 829 746 .553 90 5.09 4.58 2.76 2.25 .551 90
Cleveland 81 81 .500 805 761 .528 86 4.97 4.70 2.64 2.37 .527 85
Kansas City 75 87 .463 691 781 .439 71 4.27 4.82 1.94 2.49 .437 71
Detroit 74 88 .457 821 857 .479 78 5.07 5.29 2.74 2.96 .481 78
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
LA Angels 100 62 .617 765 697 .546 89 4.72 4.30 2.40 1.98 .548 89
Texas 79 83 .488 901 967 .465 75 5.56 5.97 3.24 3.64 .470 76
Oakland 75 86 .466 646 690 .467 75 4.01 4.29 1.69 1.96 .463 74
Seattle 61 101 .377 671 811 .406 66 4.14 5.01 1.82 2.68 .404 65
2008 National League Standings
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Philadelphia 92 70 .568 799 680 .580 94 4.93 4.20 2.61 1.87 .582 94
NY Mets  88 73 .547 797 715 .554 89 4.95 4.44 2.62 2.11 .554 89
Florida 84 76 .525 770 765 .503 81 4.81 4.78 2.49 2.45 .503 81
Atlanta 72 90 .444 753 778 .484 78 4.65 4.80 2.32 2.48 .484 78
Washington 59 102 .366 641 825 .376 61 3.98 5.12 1.65 2.80 .372 60
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Chicago Cubs 97 64 .602 855 671 .619 100 5.31 4.17 2.98 1.84 .618 100
Milwaukee 90 72 .556 750 689 .542 88 4.63 4.25 2.30 1.93 .545 88
Houston 86 75 .534 712 743 .479 77 4.42 4.61 2.10 2.29 .478 77
St. Louis 86 76 .531 779 725 .536 87 4.81 4.48 2.48 2.15 .536 87
Cincinnati 74 88 .457 704 800 .436 71 4.35 4.94 2.02 2.61 .436 71
Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 735 884 .409 66 4.54 5.46 2.21 3.13 .414 67
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
LA Dodgers 84 78 .519 700 648 .539 87 4.32 4.00 1.99 1.67 .544 88
Arizona 82 80 .506 720 706 .510 83 4.44 4.36 2.12 2.03 .510 83
Colorado 74 88 .457 747 822 .452 73 4.61 5.07 2.28 2.75 .454 74
San Francisco 72 90 .444 640 759 .416 67 3.95 4.69 1.62 2.36 .408 66
San Diego 63 99 .389 637 764 .410 66 3.93 4.72 1.61 2.39 .402 65
2426 2426 22577 22577 2429 4.65 4.65 2.33 2.33 2431
9.31 RPG
4.65 RPT/G
2.33 adjustment for today's conditions and rules.
(subtract this from RPG and ORPG, then calculate conventional %)
Final 2007 standings.
2007 American League Standings  Actual Adjusted
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Boston 96 66 .593 867 657 .635 103 5.35 4.06 2.95 1.66 .641 104
NY Yankees 94 68 .580 968 777 .608 99 5.98 4.80 3.58 2.40 .599 97
Toronto 83 79 .512 753 699 .537 87 4.65 4.31 2.25 1.92 .540 87
Baltimore 69 93 .426 756 868 .431 70 4.67 5.36 2.27 2.96 .434 70
Tampa Bay 66 96 .407 782 944 .407 66 4.83 5.83 2.43 3.43 .415 67
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Cleveland 96 66 .593 811 704 .570 92 5.01 4.35 2.61 1.95 .573 93
Detroit 88 74 .543 887 797 .553 90 5.48 4.92 3.08 2.52 .550 89
Minnesota 79 83 .488 718 725 .495 80 4.43 4.48 2.03 2.08 .495 80
Chicago White Sox 72 90 .444 693 839 .406 66 4.28 5.18 1.88 2.78 .403 65
Kansas City 69 93 .426 706 778 .452 73 4.36 4.80 1.96 2.40 .449 73
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
LA Angels 94 68 .580 822 731 .558 90 5.07 4.51 2.68 2.11 .559 90
Seattle 88 74 .543 794 813 .488 79 4.90 5.02 2.50 2.62 .489 79
Oakland 76 86 .469 741 758 .489 79 4.57 4.68 2.18 2.28 .488 79
Texas 75 87 .463 816 844 .483 78 5.04 5.21 2.64 2.81 .484 78
2007 National League Standings
EAST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Philadelphia 89 73 .549 892 821 .541 88 5.51 5.07 3.11 2.67 .538 87
NY Mets 88 74 .543 804 750 .535 87 4.96 4.63 2.56 2.23 .535 87
Atlanta 84 78 .519 810 733 .550 89 5.00 4.52 2.60 2.13 .550 89
Washington 73 89 .451 673 783 .425 69 4.15 4.83 1.76 2.43 .419 68
Florida 71 91 .438 790 891 .440 71 4.88 5.50 2.48 3.10 .444 72
CENTRAL W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Chicago Cubs 85 77 .525 752 690 .543 88 4.64 4.26 2.24 1.86 .547 89
Milwaukee 83 79 .512 801 776 .516 84 4.94 4.79 2.55 2.39 .516 84
St. Louis 78 84 .481 725 829 .433 70 4.48 5.12 2.08 2.72 .433 70
Houston 73 89 .451 723 813 .442 72 4.46 5.02 2.06 2.62 .441 71
Cincinnati 72 90 .444 783 853 .457 74 4.83 5.27 2.43 2.87 .459 74
Pittsburgh 68 94 .420 724 846 .423 68 4.47 5.22 2.07 2.82 .423 69
WEST W L PCT RS RA R2% R2 Wins RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Arizona 90 72 .556 712 732 .486 79 4.40 4.52 2.00 2.12 .485 79
Colorado 90 73 .552 860 758 .563 92 5.28 4.65 2.88 2.25 .561 91
San Diego 89 74 .546 741 666 .553 90 4.55 4.09 2.15 1.69 .560 91
LA Dodgers 82 80 .506 735 727 .505 82 4.54 4.49 2.14 2.09 .506 82
San Francisco 71 91 .438 683 720 .474 77 4.22 4.44 1.82 2.05 .470 76
2431 2431 23322 23322 2432 4.80 4.80 2.40 2.40 2430
9.59 RPG
4.80 RPT/G
2.40 adjustment for 2007 conditions and rules.
(subtract this from RPG and ORPG, then calculate conventional %)
1930 STANDINGS   4.81 ERA
Actual Adjusted
TEAM W L Pct. R OR R2% R2W RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
A's        102 52 .662 951 751 .616 95 6.18 4.88 3.40 2.10 .618 95
Senators   94 60 .610 891 688 .626 96 5.79 4.47 3.01 1.69 .640 99
Yankees    86 68 .558 1062 887 .589 91 6.90 5.76 4.12 2.98 .580 89
Indians    81 73 .526 890 914 .487 75 5.78 5.94 3.00 3.16 .487 75
Tigers     75 79 .487 783 833 .469 72 5.08 5.41 2.31 2.63 .467 72
Browns     64 90 .416 750 897 .411 63 4.87 5.82 2.09 3.05 .407 63
White Sox  62 92 .403 729 885 .404 62 4.73 5.75 1.96 2.97 .397 61
Red Sox    52 102 .338 612 813 .362 56 3.97 5.28 1.20 2.50 .323 50
Actual Adjusted
TEAM       W L Pct. R OR R2% R2W RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Cardinals  92 62 .597 1004 783 .622 96 6.52 5.08 3.74 2.31 .619 95
Cubs       90 64 .584 998 869 .569 88 6.48 5.64 3.70 2.86 .564 87
Giants     87 67 .565 959 813 .582 90 6.23 5.28 3.45 2.50 .580 89
Dodgers    86 68 .558 871 738 .582 90 5.66 4.79 2.88 2.01 .588 91
Pirates    80 74 .519 891 928 .480 74 5.79 6.03 3.01 3.25 .481 74
Braves     70 84 .455 693 835 .408 63 4.50 5.42 1.72 2.64 .394 61
Reds       59 95 .383 665 860 .374 58 4.32 5.58 1.54 2.81 .354 55
Phillies   52 102 .338 944 1199 .383 59 6.13 7.79 3.35 5.01 .401 62
1232 1232 .500 13693 13693 1226 5.56 5.56 2.78 2.78 1218
11.11 RPG
5.56 RPG/T
2.78 adjustment for 1930 conditions and rules.
(subtract this from RPG and ORPG, then calculate conventional %)
1968 STANDINGS   2.98 ERA
Actual Adjusted
TEAM       W L Pct. R OR R2% R2W RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Tigers     103 59 .636 671 492 .650 105 4.14 3.04 2.43 1.32 .647 105
Orioles    91 71 .562 579 497 .576 93 3.57 3.07 1.86 1.35 .579 94
Indians    86 75 .534 516 504 .512 82 3.20 3.13 1.49 1.42 .513 83
Red Sox    86 76 .531 614 611 .502 81 3.79 3.77 2.07 2.06 .502 81
Yankees    83 79 .512 536 531 .505 82 3.31 3.28 1.59 1.56 .505 82
A's        82 80 .506 569 544 .522 85 3.51 3.36 1.80 1.64 .522 85
Twins      79 83 .488 562 546 .514 83 3.47 3.37 1.75 1.65 .514 83
Angels     67 95 .414 498 615 .396 64 3.07 3.80 1.36 2.08 .395 64
White Sox  67 95 .414 463 527 .436 71 2.86 3.25 1.14 1.54 .426 69
Senators   65 96 .404 524 665 .383 62 3.25 4.13 1.54 2.42 .389 63
Actual Adjusted
TEAM       W L Pct. R OR R2% R2W RPG ORPG RPG ORPG % W
Cardinals  97 65 .599 583 472 .604 98 3.60 2.91 1.88 1.20 .611 99
Giants     88 74 .543 599 529 .562 91 3.70 3.27 1.98 1.55 .561 91
Cubs       84 78 .519 612 611 .501 81 3.78 3.77 2.06 2.06 .501 81
Reds       83 79 .512 690 673 .512 83 4.26 4.15 2.54 2.44 .511 83
Braves     81 81 .500 514 549 .467 76 3.17 3.39 1.46 1.67 .465 75
Pirates    80 82 .494 583 532 .546 88 3.60 3.28 1.88 1.57 .546 88
Dodgers    76 86 .469 470 509 .460 75 2.90 3.14 1.19 1.43 .454 74
Phillies   76 86 .469 543 615 .438 71 3.35 3.80 1.64 2.08 .440 71
Mets       73 89 .451 473 499 .473 77 2.92 3.08 1.20 1.36 .469 76
Astros     72 90 .444 510 588 .429 70 3.15 3.63 1.43 1.91 .428 69
1619 1619 .500 11109 11109 1617 3.43 3.43 1.72 1.72 1616
6.86 RPG
3.43 RPG/T
1.72 adjustment for 1968 conditions and rules.
(subtract this from RPG and ORPG, then calculate conventional %)