Easy Money?
Where you'll learn about a couple of ways to bet that will put the odds substantially in your favor in the post-season.
Have you heard that more than half the best-of-seven series go to at least 6 games, or that the team that wins the second game usually wins in a 5 or 7 game series? Well, it's true - and there's a very good reason for each event.
1) A World Series (any best-of-seven event) can be four, five, six, or seven games long. Many people assume that there is a roughly equal chance of each event, but there is only one way a team can win in four - WWWW. There are four ways to win in five - LWWWW, WLWWW, WWLWW, or WWWLW. A six-game series has 10 ways to win - LLWWWW, LWLWWW, LWWLWW, WLLWWW, WLWLWW, WLWWLW, WWLLWW, WWLWLW, or WWWLLW. A seven-game series win has 20 arrangements (we'll let you play with that one). A coin, randomly tossed, will "win" four straight about 12.5% of the time. There's a 25% to "win" in five, 31.25% in six, and 31.25% in seven.
That, of course, assumes that the two World Series teams are equal, but even if one team has a 60% chance of winning (the equivalent of a 100-62 team playing an 84-78 team), the respective percentages are 15.52%, 26.88%, 29.95%, and 27.65%.
2) The other "tricky" bet one can make is, before the series starts, say that "the team that wins the second game will win it all." Act like there's something mystical about that second game.
Actually, there's no mystery at all. Think about it. If you bet the winner of the second game will win the whole series, you are guaranteed the team you bet on will be no worse than 1-1 after two games. The other possibility is that your team will be 2-0.
Assuming the teams are equal, if a team is 1-1 after two games, its probability of winning the series is 50 percent. If that team is 2-0, its probability of winning the series is 81.25% [87.5% in a five-game playoff]. After all, the other team needs to win four of the remaining five games [all of the remaining three]. There is a 50-50 chance that either of these situations will develop. So, your chance of winning the bet before the series starts, is 65.625% (81.25 + 50 = 131.25, 131.25/2 = 65.625) - a bettor's dream [68.75%]. This "system" worked perfectly tin the 2006 post-season - until the World Series.
In this example, we assumed that the teams are equal. Obviously, they aren't always - but if one team is more likely to win the series, it is also more likely to win the second game.
The only way you could miss on both of these bets in a best-of-seven series, is a series that goes exactly five games and the loser's only victory was in the second game [which is exactly what happened in the 2006 World Series - but, we were still 7 for 10, altogether].
Did you notice that the winner of the second game won each of the six playoff series leading to the 2006 and World Series, but not the Series. Only one of the three best-of-seven post-season series went more than 5 games. Altogether, those two "easy money" bets won 7 of 10, in 2006 (we were 7 for 8 going into the World Series). We were 7 for 10 in 2007, as well (6 for 8 going into the Series). Had you bet on the winner of the second game in every post-season series, starting in 1995, when division playoffs started, you'd be 40-12 in division series (best-of-five), and 27-12 in best-of-seven series - 67-24 altogether. Of the 39 best-of-seven series, 21 have gone at least 6 games. So, between those two Easy Money bets, you'd be 88-42 - with NO losing (you'd have been 5-5 in 2001) post-season series in 13 years!
Here's the "big picture" on those two bets, since Division Series began in 1995:
Year 2nd of 5 2nd of 7 at least 6 of 7 Total
1995 3-1 3-0 2-1 8-2
1996 4-0 0-3 2-1 6-4
1997 4-0 1-2 3-0 8-2
1998 3-1 2-1 2-1 7-3
1999 2-2 3-0 1-2 6-4
2000 4-0 3-0 1-2 8-2
2001 2-2 2-1 1-2 5-5
2002 2-2 3-0 1-2 6-4
2003 2-2 1-2 3-0 6-4
2004 3-1 2-1 2-1 7-3
2005 3-1 3-0 1-2 7-3
2006 4-0 2-1 1-2 7-3
2007 4-0 2-1 1-2 7-3
Total 40-12 27-12 21-18 88-42