Complete baseball stats, with player and team rankings.         

 XERA-Baseball.com

Mathematics in Baseball: The Science of the Art

Featuring:  XERA - Baseball's statistical scouting report . . . and standard stats, too. XERA measures the productivity of any player or team by calculating a normal distribution of traditional baseball numbers. It's backed up by more than 100 league-seasons of data, optimized through linear programming analysis.

The latest XERA team ratings, through the games of May 17, have the top teams in MLB (in order) as the Cardinals, Nationals, Rangers, Marlins, Dodgers, Phillies, Orioles, Indians, Yankees, Rays, and Braves. The Angels (so far), Rockies, D'Backs, Padres, Astros, Mets, Mariners, Pirates, and Twins, are at the bottom of that list. Check out the 2012MLB tab at Various XERA Stat Sheets, for details. We hope to have the same level of success, in 2012, as we did last season (check it out at the bottom of this page).

The AL leads the NL by 4 games, and 32 runs, after one day, in 2012 inter-league competition.

     If you're not yet familiar with XERA, we suggest clicking this link ►►► XERA Objectives to learn more.

     How accurate is XERA, compared to any other sabermetric baseball stat? A comparison to actual data, would be a great way to find out if it works. So . . . check out this link ►►► XERA History to see how well XERA has worked every year, for more than half a century - always using the SAME formulas. Feel free to compare XERA to actual data - no other sabermetric system evaluates the production of (offensive AND defensive) earned runs more accurately.

     Now, this site shows year-by-year graphic samples, on that XERA History page. Note how precisely the hitter's XERA equates to the actual (pitcher's) ERA, every season. The graphics also show how closely the pitching stats "estimate" the batting average, slugging average, on-base average, and OPS, of the hitters! We've included a tab to compare XERA to a well-established standard . . . Bill James, Runs Created figures, as well.

Quick Click Links===>       Various XERA Stat Sheets        Standings and Ranks        Baseball trivia page         Easy Money                     

The  Easy Money Quick Click Link, after 7 straight years of being "only" 7 for 10, was 9 for 10 in 2011! 

Contact us at xerastats@gmail.com. and, yes, we're happy to answer your baseball or mathematics questions!

Updated daily: Standings and Ranks This page shows detailed 2012 MLB standings, runs scored, opponents runs scored, and Runs2 standings. We also show runs scored/allowed on a per-game basis. We have magic numbers for each division leader, and mathematically projected full-season wins for each team (this time of the year, many "projections" are humorous), from the beginning of the season. The Runs2 tab has been moved to the Standings and Ranks  workbook. See why runs2 reflects so well on a team's record. 

Updated daily: We currently have complete 2012 XERA and standard stats on all active non-pitchers with 18 or more Plate Appearances, and all active pitchers with 6 or more IP - through May 17, 2012 (822 players). Click this (the Various XERA Stat Sheets Quick Click Link), and then just click the Hitters12 tab or the Pitchers12 tab. The complete stats involve extracting information from 3 databases. That information is then correlated to formulas that were pre-positioned into Excel spreadsheets, and sorted. The reports include the Scouting Report "Grades" for each player listed. 

Updated weekly: Be sure to check out the 2012MLB tab in the Various XERA Stat Sheets section, as well, for XERA Rankings of each team, based on the collective XERAs of each team's players. Last update: All games through 5/17/2012. This feature now includes XERA grade ratings. Generally, speaking the grade ratings will be fairly consistent with the grade ratings in the Standings and Ranks section. Because XERA ratings are based on a normal distribution of accumulated player stats, not just actual runs and runs-allowed per game, it takes on additional meaning. When there is a significant difference between the two grades, look for the rankings to mutate toward the XERA grade over time. 

We use, and highly recommend, Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia (an unsolicited endorsement of my favorite source of baseball stats) as our reference for traditional baseball stats.

The Computer Annex of Sarasota has honored us (GillXL, LLC) with its “Excellence in Excel” award, again in 2011 - our fourth consecutive year of that honor. New applications used in this XERA website, along with binomial and hypergeometric distribution worksheets, were cited as some the reasons for that honor. THANK YOU! 

The same (Linear Programming) techniques that developed XERA and its related formulas, can be used very effectively in business, for cost analysis, quality control, estimating, etc. If you'd like to optimize formulas or data for your application, GillXL, LLC can do it for you, as well as translate and reformat virtually any database file (even text-based) into a sortable Excel application. Please contact us at xerastats@gmail.com. This website and all its associated formulas and stats, are by GillXL, LLC personnel.

Scroll down to the list with the light-blue background (like this) to find more details about the various baseball stats reports on this website. 

THIS symbol (throughout the text) will link to a variety of unique sabermetric material. These pages should provide a good overview of XERA and other useful baseball stats. 

Yes, this is a unique baseball site. We also recommend www.baseball-reference.com, www.retrosheet.org, and the aforementioned Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia (CBE) as outstanding baseball references. The CBE web address is www.baseball-encyclopedia.com.  

We offer updated information that was originally published in Mathematics in Baseball : The Science of the Art, by statistician Dwight Gill (a member of American Mensa) and sports writer Tad Reeve, just before the spring of 1989 and updated years later (XERA formulas are occasionally given small revisions to accommodate new information) by Dwight Gill. XERA (eXpected Earned Run Average) is baseball's statistical scouting report. We have one-hundred four league-seasons of data (1960-2011 AL and NL data) to verify XERA's accuracy and comprehensive nature. All the formulas were developed by Dwight Gill. Ron Shandler uses the original copyrighted formula in his annual Fantasy Baseball book. The original XERA book is no longer in print (because of its season-specific nature), but many of its concepts have been assimilated by major league teams - especially to statistically evaluate players. The New York Mets used then-updated XERA formulas during the 2004 season and after. The newest formulas (post-2010) are the most precise, yet, and are easier to calculate than the originals. The stats throughout this website have been updated to relate to the current formulas. No "normalizing factor" is used in the current XERA formulas, the same equations are used every year. XERA invites comparisons to any other systems, or actual data. Click THIS  to see whyClick THIS to go to the page that introduces XERA - Baseball's Statistical Scouting Report:

The key to XERA: XERA (eXpected Earned Run Average) itself, is a provably accurate mathematical technique that measures all players (including hitters) on a scale that is familiar to every baseball fan - ERA or Earned Run Average. XERA not only measures the productivity of a player, much like Bill James's and Pete Palmer's methodologies, it also breaks down standard baseball stats into  a "scouting report" that clearly demonstrates specific strengths and weaknesses of each player and team.

The actual mathematical technique used to optimize the XERA-related formulas is Linear Programming. In this application, Linear programming was used to find the relative influence (weight) of standard baseball stats on Earned Runs.

We'll also be showing a number of other baseball-related statistics, in addition to XERA. Our baseball statistics are based on the science that deals with the analysis and interpretation of numerical data, that uses proven mathematical calculations of probability, not merely the data itself.

The Various XERA Stat Sheets Quick Link, and then the appropriate tab will lead to various XERA baseball reports . . .        

1) 2012 MLB tab to see XERA, and plenty of conventional stats, for every 2011 major league team.  

     The XERA History page has the same information for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

2) Hitters12 tab to see XERA, and plenty of conventional stats, for the hitters of 2012.

     The XERA History page has the same information for 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

3) Pitchers12 tab to see XERA, and plenty of conventional stats, for the pitchers of 2012.

     The XERA History page has the same information for 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

4) Grt Hitters tab to see XERA demonstrate the skills of 259 of baseball's greatest hitters (career, all time) . . . 

5) Grt Pitchers tab to see XERA demonstrate the skills of 263 of baseball's greatest pitchers (all pitchers with 150 wins or saves, career, all time) . . . 

6) 20W Seasons tab to see detailed XERA data, and standard stats, for all 805 20-game winners since the 1900 season.

7) H Seasons tab to see how detailed XERA data, and standard stats, for 600 of the best hitting seasons in baseball history.

8) LeftRight tab to see how XERA makes it possible to determine the true (run-scoring) effects of the lefty/righty theory with final 2007, and 2006 stats. 

9) BarryB tab to see a detailed year-by-year XERA breakdown of Barry Bonds' incredible career - before 2000 and after . . . This guy got dramatically BETTER after he turned 35 . . . or was it the steroids? In response to a number of requests, we've added tabs for the the careers of Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and the late Harmon Killebrew. We've also added Mariano Rivera, perhaps the finest relief pitcher in baseball history. 

10) Changes tab to see, by the numbers, how the game has changed over the years. Easily find the eras when pitching dominated the game, when power entered the game, when high batting averages were the norm . . . 

Got questions (or suggestions, or comments)? Check it out on one of the pages of this website, or contact us at xerastats@gmail.com. We want to provide baseball fans, and professionals, with useful, interesting and unique information.

Click THIS to check out the answers to your early questions.

2011, in review: Seven of the eight postseason teams finished in the top nine positions in our XERA rankings (the Red Sox and Giants were the other two - the Diamondbacks were #13). Check out the 2011MLB tab at the Various XERA Stat Sheets Quick Click Link for final 2011 ratings of every major league team. It's more evidence that XERA is the best statistical evaluator of baseball talent.

We correctly picked all six division winners in early September. We, also, incorrectly, picked the two Wild Cards. Our picks, the Braves (9-18) and the Red Sox (7-20) had incredibly bad September performances. That, combined with fine records by the Cardinals (18-8) and Rays (17-10) contributed to an exciting September race.

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